Sport Picks
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo 
Match Events
2'
2'
Barboza B.
16'
16'
Laxalt D.
19'
19'
Umpierrez L.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
35%
24%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Defensor Sp. haven't matched Penarol's recent run of results.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Penarol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penarol | Defensor Sp. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 6 |
| Draws | 8 | 12 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Penarol
0:2
May 4, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
2:1
Oct 16, 2025 Copa Uruguay
Defensor Sp. vs Penarol
0:2
Jun 7, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Umpierrez L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Defensor Sp. Compare
Top Goalscorer Montenegro B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penarol 86 / 100
Defensor Sp. 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penarol Defensor Sp.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Penarol scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Defensor Sp.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Penarol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Penarol VS Defensor Sp.
2.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Penarol
(Home) 13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4 Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2 Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0 Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0 Montevideo City
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1 Central Esp.
05 Aug
Penarol
5 : 1 Wanderers
Page 1 of 4
Defensor Sp.
(Away) 13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Maldonado
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0 Rentistas
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
04 Jul
Cruzeiro
2 : 0 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp. | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool M. | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
