Sport Picks
Match Events
8'
8'
Sub
Olivera M. In: Trindade J.
Out: Olivera M.
13'
13'
Umpierrez L.
18'
18'
Roldan L.
AI Match Summary
The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Penarol and Juventud finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Penarol carry the better recent record into this one.
- Penarol are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Juventud Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penarol | Juventud |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 11 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Juventud
2:2
Sep 21, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Juventud
1:0
Mar 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Penarol
0:2
Sep 21, 2019 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Penarol
1:1
Aug 18, 2019 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Juventud
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Umpierrez L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Juventud Compare
Top Goalscorer Rabino R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mimbacas F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penarol 68 / 100
Juventud 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penarol Juventud
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penarol found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Juventud's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Solid form: Penarol remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Penarol VS Juventud
2.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Penarol
(Home) 19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4 Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2 Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0 Montevideo City
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1 Central Esp.
05 Aug
Penarol
5 : 1 Wanderers
Page 1 of 4
Juventud
(Away) 17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0 Racing Montevideo
13 Sept
Juventud
1 : 1 Danubio
06 Sept
Club Nacional
2 : 2 Juventud
02 Sept
Central Esp.
3 : 0 Juventud
29 Aug
Juventud
2 : 0 Maldonado
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Club Nacional
2 : 2 Juventud
02 Sept
Central Esp.
3 : 0 Juventud
22 Aug
Central Esp.
0 : 1 Juventud
07 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Juventud
01 Aug
Maldonado
0 : 0 Juventud
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp. | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool M. | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
