Sport Picks

Penarol vs Montevideo City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay

Copa Uruguay

Penarol

1 - 0

Montevideo City

Our Tip

Match Events

74'

Remedi E.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Penarol

35%

Draws

27%

Montevideo City

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Montevideo City lately — more wins on the board than Penarol.
Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 90%.
Montevideo City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Penarol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%

Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Montevideo City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penarol	Montevideo City
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	15	18
Draws	9	6
Losses	6	8
Goals Scored	1.6	1.78
Goals Conceded	0.9	1.19
Expected Goals (xG)	1.56	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Montevideo City vs Penarol

1:1

Aug 26, 2026 Copa Uruguay

Penarol vs Montevideo City

1:0

Feb 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Penarol vs Montevideo City

3:1

Nov 9, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Montevideo City vs Penarol

0:2

May 17, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Penarol vs Montevideo City

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Remedi E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.78

Montevideo City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 95 / 100

Montevideo City 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penarol Montevideo City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Penarol stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Penarol scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Montevideo City has conceded goals in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Montevideo City

1.88 Goals Scored 2.13

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25

88% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)

30 Sept

Montevideo City

1 : 1

Penarol

26 Sept

Penarol

2 : 1

Boston River

24 Sept

Danubio

1 : 1

Penarol

19 Sept

CA Cerro

1 : 2

Penarol

13 Sept

Penarol

3 : 1

Albion

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Montevideo City

(Away)

30 Sept

Montevideo City

1 : 1

Penarol

27 Sept

Montevideo City

0 : 2

Maldonado

24 Sept

Montevideo City

3 : 3

Atenas

21 Sept

Central Esp.

1 : 4

Montevideo City

18 Sept

Montevideo City

3 : 0

Cienciano

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