Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo

Penarol

1 - 2

Platense

Our Tip

Match Events

22'

Mainero G.

Assist: Silva T.

26'

Escobar F.

33'

Nasif T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Penarol

30%

Draws

19%

Platense

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Penarol come out ahead of Platense on wins alone.
Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 90%.
Penarol have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Platense, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Platense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penarol	Platense
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	13	9
Draws	7	9
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.46	0.89
Goals Conceded	0.96	1.11
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Platense vs Penarol

1:1

Apr 17, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Penarol vs Platense

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Arezo M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Platense Compare

Top Goalscorer Mainero G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 95 / 100

Platense 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penarol Platense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Penarol has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Platense has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Platense

1.38 Goals Scored 1

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 50%

0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)

05 Aug

Penarol

5 : 1

Wanderers

01 Aug

Penarol

3 : 0

Cerro Largo

18 Jul

Penarol

3 : 0

Boston River

12 Jul

Racing Montevideo

1 : 1

Penarol

07 Jun

CA Cerro

0 : 1

Penarol

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Platense

(Away)

12 Aug

Platense

1 : 1

Coquimbo

09 Aug

Independiente

0 : 1

Platense

03 Aug

Platense

0 : 4

Talleres Cordoba

30 Jul

Instituto

2 : 1

Platense

25 Jul

Platense

2 : 2

Union de Santa Fe

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