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Penarol vs River Plate

South America South America

Serie Rio de la Plata Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado
Sun, Jan 18, 2026
0 - 1
01:15 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sub
Hernandez A. In: Batista F.
Out: Hernandez A.
19'
Trindade J.
45'
Remedi E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie Rio de la Plata game between Penarol and River Plate finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward River Plate.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Penarol
15%
Draws
35%
River Plate
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and River Plate come out ahead of Penarol on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
  • Regular Serie Rio de la Plata form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
River Plate Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol River Plate
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.53 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.97 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie Rio de la Plata
Penarol vs River Plate
0:1
Jan 14, 2015 Copa Bandes
Penarol vs River Plate
2:1
Jul 22, 2014 Club Friendly
Penarol vs River Plate
0:0
Apr 19, 1995 Copa Libertadores
River Plate vs Penarol
1:1
Mar 8, 1995 Copa Libertadores
Penarol vs River Plate
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 50 / 100
River Plate 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol River Plate

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Penarol stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Penarol found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

River Plate's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS River Plate
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1
Boston River
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
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River Plate

(Away)
19 Sept
River Plate
1 : 2
Huracan
12 Sept
Atl. Tucuman
1 : 2
River Plate
06 Sept
River Plate
3 : 1
Ind. Rivadavia
30 Aug
Banfield
2 : 3
River Plate
27 Aug
River Plate
1 : 2
Santa Fe
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