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Penarol vs Unidos do Alvorada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Amazonense 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Taysson

AI Match Summary

The Amazonense 2 2025 game between Penarol and Unidos do Alvorada finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Penarol
15%
Draws
0%
Unidos do Alvorada
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

0% / Low Confidence
  • Unidos do Alvorada carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Unidos do Alvorada's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Amazonense 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Penarol Clean Sheet 13%
Unidos do Alvorada Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Unidos do Alvorada
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 13
Draws 4 3
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 0.97 1.66
Goals Conceded 2.37 1.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 Amazonense 2
Unidos do Alvorada vs Penarol
6:1
Jun 15, 2025 Amazonense 2
Penarol vs Unidos do Alvorada
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Taysson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Unidos do Alvorada Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 19 / 100
Unidos do Alvorada 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Unidos do Alvorada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Unidos do Alvorada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Unidos do Alvorada's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Away concern: Unidos do Alvorada has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Penarol's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Unidos do Alvorada
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
30 Aug
Penarol
2 : 9
RB do Norte
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 5
Fast Clube
21 Aug
Cliper
1 : 2
Penarol
12 Aug
Penarol
0 : 3
Manicore
09 Aug
Operario Esporte Clube
4 : 0
Penarol
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Unidos do Alvorada

(Away)
30 Aug
Cliper
6 : 1
Unidos do Alvorada
20 Aug
Unidos do Alvorada
2 : 4
Operario Esporte Clube
15 Aug
RB do Norte
6 : 1
Unidos do Alvorada
13 Aug
Fast Clube
4 : 1
Unidos do Alvorada
06 Aug
Unidos do Alvorada
1 : 6
Manicore
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 4 3 1 0 6:1 10
2 Taruma 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Unidos do Alvorada 4 2 0 2 3:3 6
4 Manicore 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
5 RB do Norte 4 0 0 4 1:8 0
Promotion - Amazonense 2 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Operario Esporte Clube 4 3 1 0 10:5 10
2 Itacoatiara 4 2 2 0 6:1 8
3 Sul America 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
4 Fast Clube 4 1 1 2 5:8 4
5 Cliper 4 0 1 3 4:9 1
Promotion - Amazonense 2 2025 (Play Offs)