Sport Picks
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Australia
NPL Queensland AJ Kelly Park, Brisbane 
Match Events
12'
12'
Joseph N.
19'
19'
Scott J.
20'
20'
Joseph N.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Peninsula haven't matched Moreton City Excelsior's recent run of results.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Moreton City Excelsior arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Moreton City Excelsior, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Peninsula Clean Sheet 17%
Moreton City Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Peninsula | Moreton City Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 36 |
| Wins | 17 | 20 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.94 | 2.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior
3:2
Jul 18, 2026 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior
1:4
Jun 17, 2025 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior
0:2
May 10, 2025 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Peninsula Compare
Top Goalscorer Joseph N.
2 Goals Assists Leader Miyazawa H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Moreton City Excelsior Compare
Top Goalscorer Scott J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Peninsula 31 / 100
Moreton City Excelsior 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Peninsula Moreton City Excelsior
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Peninsula scored in 85% of their last 34 games.
Games between these two average 4.40 goals.
Moreton City Excelsior's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 36 matches.
Recent resilience: Peninsula stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Peninsula VS Moreton City Excelsior
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Peninsula
(Home) 12 Sept
Queensland Lions
1 : 0 Peninsula
05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
30 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 1 Peninsula
14 Aug
Peninsula
2 : 2 Brisbane City
08 Aug
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 2 Peninsula
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
14 Aug
Peninsula
2 : 2 Brisbane City
10 Jul
Peninsula
0 : 0 Wynnum Wolves
27 Jun
Peninsula
3 : 1 Brisbane Roar U23
23 May
Peninsula
3 : 2 Magic United TFA FC
Page 1 of 3
Moreton City Excelsior
(Away) 05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
29 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 0 Gold Coast Knights SC
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2 Queensland Lions
08 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
Page 1 of 8
05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
08 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
04 Jul
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 1 Moreton City Excelsior
28 Jun
Gold Coast Utd
0 : 1 Moreton City Excelsior
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Queensland Lions 4
Peninsula 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Moreton City Excelsior 2
Gold Coast Knights SC 0
Semi-finals
Queensland Lions -
TBD -
Peninsula 3
Moreton City Excelsior 2
Final
Queensland Lions 1
Peninsula 0
