Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 11 2015/2016

Esporles

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva play Esporles in the Tercera Division - Group 11 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Penya Ciutadella Esportiva averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. Esporles averaged 0.71 goals scored and 2.42 conceded. In past meetings, Penya Ciutadella Esportiva won 0, Esporles won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Dec 17, 2016 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Penya Ciutadella Esportiva and 0.86 for Esporles. This points to a Penya Ciutadella Esportiva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva

35%

Draws

22%

Esporles

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penya Ciutadella Esportiva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva picked up more points recently compared to Esporles.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.92 vs 0.86 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva Clean Sheet 25%

Esporles Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 79%

Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penya Ciutadella Esportiva	Esporles
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	4	1
Draws	9	7
Losses	17	23
Goals Scored	0.83	0.71
Goals Conceded	2.17	2.42

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 17, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva vs Esporles

Possession: 48% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Aug 21, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Esporles vs Penya Ciutadella Esportiva

Possession: 53% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Feb 27, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva vs Esporles

Possession: 57% - 59% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

Oct 10, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Esporles vs Penya Ciutadella Esportiva

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 3 - 4

3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva 44 / 100

Esporles 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva Esporles

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Penya Ciutadella Esportiva or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva attacking → ← attacking Esporles

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Esporles let in goals in 97% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Penya Ciutadella Esportiva went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Esporles lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 10

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mallorca B	38	24	8	6	79:29	80
2	Formentera	38	23	9	6	69:29	78
3	Pena Deportiva	38	21	11	6	63:32	74
4	Constancia	38	17	14	7	58:30	65
5	UD Poblense	38	16	14	8	57:30	62
6	Alcudia	38	18	7	13	52:39	61
7	Mercadal	38	17	10	11	49:42	61
8	Binissalem	38	16	11	11	49:38	59
9	CD Montuiri	38	15	12	11	49:49	57
10	Collerense	38	16	7	15	52:51	55
11	El Espinar Sant Rafel	38	13	14	11	43:37	53
12	Ferriolense	38	11	12	15	36:42	45
13	Campos	38	10	14	14	47:59	44
14	Penya Ciutadella Esportiva	38	11	10	17	46:61	43
15	Esporles	38	11	7	20	35:56	40
16	Rotlet Molinar	38	9	11	18	42:70	38
17	Santa Catalina Atletico	38	9	10	19	33:52	37
18	Platges de Calvia	38	7	14	17	28:55	35
19	Soller	38	5	9	24	32:81	24
20	UD Alaro	38	4	10	24	18:55	22