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Penybont vs Haverfordwest - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 Bryntirion Park, Bridgend
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Venables C.
Assist: Cann E.
31'
Baker A.
45'
Sub
Cvetkovic A. In: Green C.
Out: Cvetkovic A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Penybont advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Penybont
15%
Draws
28%
Haverfordwest
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penybont

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Haverfordwest come out ahead of Penybont on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Penybont taking it.
  • Haverfordwest arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Penybont, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Penybont have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Penybont Clean Sheet 68%
Haverfordwest Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penybont Haverfordwest
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 7 1
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.14 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Cymru Premier
Haverfordwest vs Penybont
0:3
May 2, 2026 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Haverfordwest
2:0
Oct 7, 2025 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Haverfordwest
2:1
Aug 8, 2025 Cymru Premier
Haverfordwest vs Penybont
0:1
Mar 21, 2025 Cymru Premier
Haverfordwest vs Penybont
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penybont Compare

Top Goalscorer Venables C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Davies M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Haverfordwest Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penybont 86 / 100
Haverfordwest 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penybont Haverfordwest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penybont Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penybont's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Haverfordwest conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Penybont remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Penybont VS Haverfordwest
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Penybont

(Home)
03 Oct
Connahs Q.
1 : 0
Penybont
26 Sept
Penybont
2 : 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC
18 Sept
Ammanford Town
1 : 5
Penybont
15 Sept
Penybont
3 : 2
Briton Ferry
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1
Penybont
Page 1 of 6

Haverfordwest

(Away)
03 Oct
Haverfordwest
0 : 1
Flint Town
29 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
1 : 0
Haverfordwest
26 Sept
Colwyn Bay
1 : 0
Haverfordwest
18 Sept
Haverfordwest
1 : 0
Holywell Town FC
11 Sept
Haverfordwest
3 : 1
Briton Ferry
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Barry Town 1
Haverfordwest 2
Colwyn Bay 0
Penybont 1
Final
Haverfordwest 0
Penybont 2