Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-5. The second leg ended 0-5.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
20%
20%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penydarren
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Caerau Ely carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Caerau Ely arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Caerau Ely, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Penydarren Clean Sheet 10%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penydarren | Caerau Ely |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 15 | 27 |
| Wins | 9 | 13 |
| Draws | 0 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 2.22 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.72 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2025 FA Cup
Penydarren vs Caerau Ely
0:5
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penydarren 34 / 100
Caerau Ely 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penydarren Caerau Ely
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CAE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penydarren found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (15 games).
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Caerau Ely conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.
Away concern: Caerau Ely has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
- VS Caerau Ely
0 Goals Scored 2.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Penydarren
(Home) 20 Sept
Penydarren
0 : 5 Caerau Ely
16 Nov
Penydarren
2 : 3 Carmarthen Town
18 Oct
Penydarren
2 : 0 Pontypridd United
21 Sept
Penydarren
4 : 3 Porthcawl Town
16 Sept
Penydarren
2 : 3 South Gower AFC
Page 1 of 3
20 Sept
Penydarren
0 : 5 Caerau Ely
16 Nov
Penydarren
2 : 3 Carmarthen Town
18 Oct
Penydarren
2 : 0 Pontypridd United
21 Sept
Penydarren
4 : 3 Porthcawl Town
16 Sept
Penydarren
2 : 3 South Gower AFC
Page 1 of 3
Caerau Ely
(Away) 07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4 Barnstaple Town
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
11 Jul
Evesham
2 : 0 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
11 Jul
Evesham
2 : 0 Caerau Ely
18 Apr
Pontypridd United
0 : 0 Caerau Ely
28 Mar
Llantwit Major
1 : 4 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
