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Penza vs Kursk

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Konshin D.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 game between Penza and Kursk finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kursk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Penza
15%
Draws
20%
Kursk
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kursk come out ahead of Penza on wins alone.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Penza taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Kursk here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Penza Clean Sheet 18%
Kursk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penza Kursk
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 10
Draws 3 7
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Kursk vs Penza
1:0
Apr 25, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Kursk
0:1
Oct 10, 2021 FNL 2 - Group 3
Penza vs Kursk
3:1
Aug 1, 2021 FNL 2 - Group 3
Kursk vs Penza
4:0
May 14, 2017 FNL 2 - Group 3
Penza vs Kursk
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penza Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kursk Compare

Top Goalscorer Konshin D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penza 67 / 100
Kursk 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penza Kursk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Penza scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Kursk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Penza has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penza VS Kursk
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penza

(Home)
19 Sept
Penza
0 : 0
Arsenal Tula 2
13 Sept
Strogino Moscow
3 : 0
Penza
05 Sept
Penza
2 : 1
SKA Khabarovsk 2
29 Aug
FK Shumbrat Saransk
1 : 3
Penza
22 Aug
Penza
1 : 0
Spartak Tambov
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Kursk

(Away)
12 Sept
Kursk
1 : 3
Salyut-Belgorod
05 Sept
Kursk
3 : 2
FC Oryol
29 Aug
Kursk
0 : 2
Rodina Moscow 3
25 Aug
Kursk
1 : 2
Kaluga
22 Aug
M. Lipetsk
2 : 1
Kursk
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