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Penza vs M. Lipetsk

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Skvortsov A.
64' Event
Podzolkov Z.
73' Event
Rodionov A.

AI Match Summary

M. Lipetsk in this FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored M. Lipetsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Penza
20%
Draws
52%
M. Lipetsk
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: M. Lipetsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to M. Lipetsk lately — more wins on the board than Penza.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on M. Lipetsk taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Penza Clean Sheet 10%
M. Lipetsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penza M. Lipetsk
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 12
Draws 2 8
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 1 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs M. Lipetsk
2:3
Jul 26, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs M. Lipetsk
1:2
Apr 5, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
M. Lipetsk vs Penza
1:2
Aug 21, 2024 Russian Cup
M. Lipetsk vs Penza
1:2
May 20, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 3
M. Lipetsk vs Penza
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penza Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodionov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kolesin N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

M. Lipetsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Skvortsov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Podzolkov Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penza 22 / 100
M. Lipetsk 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penza M. Lipetsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MET Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Penza scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: M. Lipetsk conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Penza went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penza VS M. Lipetsk
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Penza

(Home)
08 Aug
Penza
0 : 2
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
29 Jul
SKA Rostov-on-Don
3 : 2
Penza
25 Jul
R. Volgograd 2
0 : 1
Penza
01 Jul
Penza
1 : 2
Salyut-Belgorod
27 Jun
Penza
3 : 1
FC Oryol
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M. Lipetsk

(Away)
08 Aug
M. Lipetsk
0 : 0
Ryazan
01 Aug
R. Volgograd 2
0 : 3
M. Lipetsk
25 Jul
Kvant Obninsk
2 : 2
M. Lipetsk
04 Jul
FC Oryol
0 : 2
M. Lipetsk
27 Jun
M. Lipetsk
3 : 2
Rodina Moscow 3
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