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Petrolina vs Afogados da Ingazeira - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Petrolina host Afogados da Ingazeira in the Pernambucano. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Petrolina at 0.94 goals for, 1.38 against; Afogados da Ingazeira at 1.32 for, 1.32 against. Past meetings favor Petrolina slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 26, 2025, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 0.81 vs 1.00, favoring Afogados da Ingazeira. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Petrolina
35%
Draws
49%
Afogados da Ingazeira
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Afogados da Ingazeira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Afogados da Ingazeira carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Petrolina Clean Sheet 20%
Afogados da Ingazeira Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Petrolina Afogados da Ingazeira
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 7 13
Draws 11 8
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.94 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Petrolina
1:1
Jan 25, 2024 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Afogados da Ingazeira
2:2
Mar 12, 2023 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Afogados da Ingazeira
4:2
Feb 6, 2020 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Petrolina
2:2
Jan 20, 2019 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Petrolina
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Petrolina 32 / 100
Afogados da Ingazeira 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Petrolina Afogados da Ingazeira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Afogados da Ingazeira let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Petrolina's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Solid form: Petrolina remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Petrolina VS Afogados da Ingazeira
0.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Petrolina

(Home)
22 Feb
Petrolina
1 : 3
Sport Recife
17 Feb
Jaguar
2 : 1
Petrolina
09 Feb
Petrolina
0 : 1
Retro
02 Feb
Petrolina
0 : 0
Central SC
30 Jan
Decisao
3 : 0
Petrolina
Page 1 of 7

Afogados da Ingazeira

(Away)
22 Feb
Jaguar
1 : 0
Afogados da Ingazeira
15 Feb
Afogados da Ingazeira
1 : 1
Maguary
09 Feb
Nautico
4 : 0
Afogados da Ingazeira
05 Feb
Decisao
1 : 1
Afogados da Ingazeira
29 Jan
Afogados da Ingazeira
1 : 1
Central SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salgueiro 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Petrolina 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Ferroviario do Cabo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Afogados da Ingazeira 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 1º de Maio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Facilnet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Pernambucano (First stage - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ypiranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 CA Porto 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Belo Jardim 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Pesqueira 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Cha Grande 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Central SC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Pernambucano (First stage - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico PE 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Centro Limoeirense 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Jaguar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Aguia FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Serrano PE 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Santa Fe PE 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Pernambucano (First stage - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America PE 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Vera Cruz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Ibis Sport Club 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Sete de Setembro (PE) 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Ipojuca 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Guarany PE 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Pernambucano (First stage - Play Offs)