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PFC Burgas vs Nesebar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East 2013/2014
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-East 2013/2014 game between PFC Burgas and Nesebar finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward PFC Burgas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
PFC Burgas
35%
Draws
37%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nesebar come out ahead of PFC Burgas on wins alone.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Third League - South-East 2013/2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and PFC Burgas have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
PFC Burgas Clean Sheet 10%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PFC Burgas Nesebar
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 11 25
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.53 2.77
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 2.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2014 Third League - South-East
PFC Burgas vs Nesebar
2:0
Sep 14, 2013 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs PFC Burgas
0:1
Jun 2, 2013 Third League - South-East
PFC Burgas vs Nesebar
1:0
Dec 1, 2012 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs PFC Burgas
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PFC Burgas 10 / 100
Nesebar 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PFC Burgas Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: PFC Burgas scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

PFC Burgas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Nesebar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 54% of 39 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

- VS Nesebar
0 Goals Scored 4.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

PFC Burgas

(Home)
30 May
Pirin Blagoevgrad
4 : 0
PFC Burgas
23 May
PFC Burgas
1 : 1
Gorna
16 May
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1 : 3
PFC Burgas
02 May
Botev Galabovo
0 : 0
PFC Burgas
26 Apr
PFC Burgas
1 : 1
Sozopol
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Nesebar

(Away)
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1
Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sozopol 32 26 3 3 104:25 81
2 PFC Burgas 32 26 2 4 92:21 80
3 Vereya 32 24 3 5 102:25 75
4 Spartak Plovdiv 32 19 7 6 61:25 64
5 Nesebar 32 19 5 8 75:40 62
6 Asenovets 32 17 9 6 65:35 60
7 Gigant Saedinenie 32 16 7 9 56:33 55
8 Radnevo 32 15 4 13 55:52 49
9 Evrokolezh 32 12 6 14 44:46 42
10 Svilengrad 1921 32 12 4 16 51:52 40
11 Zagorets 32 10 7 15 36:55 37
12 Dimitrovgrad 32 9 5 18 45:50 32
13 Rozova Dolina 32 9 5 18 42:51 32
14 Levski Karlovo 32 7 4 21 38:85 25
15 Yambol 1915 32 7 3 22 19:74 24
16 Sliven 32 4 0 28 33:165 12
17 Straldzha 32 2 2 28 24:108 8
Promotion - B PFG 2014/2015 (Main)