Sport Picks
PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Russia
FNL Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi 
Match Events
21'
21'
Ignatov M.
24'
24'
Zaika K.
27'
27'
Meleshin P.
AI Match Summary
PFC Sochi in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored PFC Sochi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PFC Sochi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- PFC Sochi have won more games recently than Arsenal Tula.
- Win probability leans PFC Sochi's way, sitting at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
PFC Sochi Clean Sheet 68%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | PFC Sochi | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 11 |
| Losses | 11 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 FNL
PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula
5:0
Jun 26, 2026 Club Friendly
PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula
3:3
May 3, 2025 FNL
PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula
5:1
Oct 13, 2024 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs PFC Sochi
1:1
Feb 26, 2022 Premier League
PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
PFC Sochi Compare
Top Goalscorer Ignatov M.
3 Goals Assists Leader Meleshin P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Arsenal Tula Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
PFC Sochi 68 / 100
Arsenal Tula 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
PFC Sochi Arsenal Tula
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick PFC Sochi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Arsenal Tula conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 4.20 goals.
PFC Sochi scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Recent resilience: PFC Sochi stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
PFC Sochi VS Arsenal Tula
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
PFC Sochi
(Home) 16 Oct
R. Volgograd
0 : 1 PFC Sochi
11 Oct
PFC Sochi
1 : 0 Ufa
18 Sept
PFC Sochi
1 : 1 SKA Khabarovsk
14 Sept
Veles Moscow
1 : 2 PFC Sochi
09 Sept
Dynamo Petersburg
2 : 0 PFC Sochi
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
PFC Sochi
1 : 0 Ufa
18 Sept
PFC Sochi
1 : 1 SKA Khabarovsk
05 Sept
PFC Sochi
0 : 1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod
30 Aug
PFC Sochi
2 : 1 Chelyabinsk
16 Aug
PFC Sochi
1 : 0 Ulyanovsk
Page 1 of 3
Arsenal Tula
(Away) 17 Oct
Ufa
2 : 0 Arsenal Tula
09 Oct
Arsenal Tula
3 : 2 S. Kostroma
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2 Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Ufa
2 : 0 Arsenal Tula
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2 Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
08 Sept
Tekstilshtik
1 : 0 Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 43:15 | 37 |
| 2 | PFC Sochi | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 23:14 | 29 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moscow | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 26:11 | 27 |
| 4 | Veles Moscow | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20:18 | 27 |
| 5 | S. Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20:13 | 27 |
| 6 | Ural | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22:10 | 25 |
| 7 | Ufa | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 18:14 | 21 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 18:14 | 20 |
| 9 | R. Volgograd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22:17 | 18 |
| 10 | Ulyanovsk | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15:26 | 16 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18:23 | 15 |
| 13 | Yenisey | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16:27 | 14 |
| 14 | Kamaz | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16:23 | 13 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11:25 | 13 |
| 16 | Neftekhimik | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 10:21 | 12 |
| 17 | Tekstilshtik | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10:22 | 10 |
| 18 | SKA Khabarovsk | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15:28 | 7 |
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