Sport Picks
Philippines vs Timor-Leste
Asia
Asian Cup Rizal Memorial Stadium, Manila 
Match Events
45'
45'
Rangel J.
Assist: Gomes Osorio C.
47'
47'
Tabinas J.
Assist: Schneider R.
48'
48'
Panji J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philippines
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Philippines lately — more wins on the board than Timor-Leste.
- Model gives Philippines a 57% chance of winning this.
- Philippines have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Philippines, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Philippines have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Philippines Clean Sheet 68%
Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Philippines | Timor-Leste |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.42 | 2.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 14, 2025 Asian Cup
Philippines vs Timor-Leste
3:1
Oct 9, 2025 Asian Cup
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
1:4
Dec 11, 2021 ASEAN Championship
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
0:7
Nov 17, 2018 ASEAN Championship
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
2:3
Dec 5, 2017 Friendly International
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Philippines Compare
Top Goalscorer Tabinas J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kristensen B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Timor-Leste Compare
Top Goalscorer Rangel J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Philippines 95 / 100
Timor-Leste 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Philippines Timor-Leste
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Philippines Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.40 goals.
Philippines's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.
Timor-Leste's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.
Away concern: Timor-Leste has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Philippines VS Timor-Leste
2.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Philippines
(Home) 08 Aug
Malaysia
1 : 0 Philippines
04 Aug
Philippines
0 : 1 Thailand
01 Aug
Laos
1 : 4 Philippines
28 Jul
Philippines
1 : 4 Myanmar
09 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1 Myanmar
Page 1 of 7
04 Aug
Philippines
0 : 1 Thailand
28 Jul
Philippines
1 : 4 Myanmar
09 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1 Myanmar
03 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1 Guam
14 Oct
Philippines
3 : 1 Timor-Leste
Page 1 of 3
Timor-Leste
(Away) 03 Aug
Cambodia
3 : 0 Timor-Leste
31 Jul
Timor-Leste
0 : 3 Indonesia
27 Jul
Singapore
2 : 0 Timor-Leste
24 Jul
Timor-Leste
0 : 7 Vietnam
09 Jun
Timor-Leste
3 : 1 Brunei
Page 1 of 6
03 Aug
Cambodia
3 : 0 Timor-Leste
27 Jul
Singapore
2 : 0 Timor-Leste
02 Jun
Brunei
0 : 3 Timor-Leste
31 Mar
Maldives
2 : 1 Timor-Leste
14 Oct
Philippines
3 : 1 Timor-Leste
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tajikistan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 2 | Philippines | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16:6 | 14 |
| 3 | Maldives | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | 3 |
| 4 | Timor-Leste | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:15 | 3 |
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yemen | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20:1 | 14 |
| 2 | Lebanon | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:2 | 13 |
| 3 | Bhutan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:16 | 4 |
| 4 | Brunei | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:22 | 3 |
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singapore | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8:4 | 14 |
| 2 | Hong Kong | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 8 |
| 3 | Bangladesh | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:8 | 5 |
| 4 | India | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:6 | 5 |
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thailand | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 15 |
| 2 | Turkmenistan | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:7 | 12 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | 9 |
| 4 | Chinese Taipei | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5:19 | 0 |
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Syria | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21:2 | 18 |
| 2 | Myanmar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8:11 | 12 |
| 3 | Afghanistan | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:11 | 2 |
| 4 | Pakistan | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:11 | 2 |
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vietnam | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 18 |
| 2 | Malaysia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 3 | Laos | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Nepal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5:8 | 3 |
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)
