Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Philippines vs Timor-Leste

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Rizal Memorial Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Rangel J.
Assist: Gomes Osorio C.
47' Event
Tabinas J.
Assist: Schneider R.
48'
Panji J.

AI Match Summary

Philippines in this Asian Cup matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Philippines.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Philippines
6%
Draws
4%
Timor-Leste
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Philippines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Philippines lately — more wins on the board than Timor-Leste.
  • Model gives Philippines a 90% chance of winning this.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Asian Cup game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Philippines have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Philippines Clean Sheet 68%
Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philippines Timor-Leste
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 7 2
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 2.25 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2025 Asian Cup
Philippines vs Timor-Leste
3:1
Oct 9, 2025 Asian Cup
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
1:4
Dec 11, 2021 ASEAN Championship
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
0:7
Nov 17, 2018 ASEAN Championship
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
2:3
Dec 5, 2017 Friendly International
Timor-Leste vs Philippines
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philippines Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabinas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kristensen B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Timor-Leste Compare

Top Goalscorer Rangel J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philippines 95 / 100
Timor-Leste 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philippines Timor-Leste

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philippines's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Philippines remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Timor-Leste's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Philippines VS Timor-Leste
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tajikistan642014:314
2Philippines642016:614
3Maldives61053:133
4Timor-Leste61054:153
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Yemen642020:114
2Lebanon641114:213
3Bhutan61144:164
4Brunei61053:223
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Singapore64208:414
2Hong Kong62228:88
3Bangladesh61236:85
4India61234:65
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Thailand650116:515
2Turkmenistan640211:712
3Sri Lanka63038:99
4Chinese Taipei60065:190
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Syria660021:218
2Myanmar64028:1112
3Afghanistan60244:112
4Pakistan60242:112
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vietnam660017:218
2Malaysia630310:109
3Laos62044:166
4Nepal61055:83