Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City

USA USA

USL Championship Wild Horse Pass Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Biasi L.
27'
Moursou J.
34'
Mar Boye P.

AI Match Summary

The USL Championship game between Phoenix Rising and Louisville City finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Louisville City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Phoenix Rising
28%
Draws
50%
Louisville City
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Louisville City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Louisville City come out ahead of Phoenix Rising on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Louisville City taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Phoenix Rising Clean Sheet 10%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Phoenix Rising Louisville City
Matches Played 25 30
Wins 8 18
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 2 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2026 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City
0:2
Oct 26, 2024 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Phoenix Rising
4:1
Jun 18, 2023 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City
2:2
Jul 20, 2022 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Phoenix Rising
0:0
Feb 20, 2022 Club Friendly
Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Phoenix Rising Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Louisville City Compare

Top Goalscorer Akale M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duncan Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Phoenix Rising 22 / 100
Louisville City 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Phoenix Rising Louisville City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Phoenix Rising found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (25 games).

Defensive concern: Louisville City conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Phoenix Rising went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Phoenix Rising VS Louisville City
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1447312:1319
8Miami FC1546518:2418
9Rhode Island1344523:1816
10Birmingham Legion1528516:1914
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Orange County SC1677225:1828
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6Sacramento Republic1354415:1319
7El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
8FC Tulsa1354417:1619
9Lexington1353521:1618
10Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215