Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pianese vs Perugia

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Comunale, Piancastagnaio
Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Verre V.
45' Event
Coccia L.
46'
Sub
Tumbarello G. In: Joselito
Out: Tumbarello G.

AI Match Summary

Pianese in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pianese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Pianese
35%
Draws
18%
Perugia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pianese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Pianese have won more games recently than Perugia.
  • Win probability leans Pianese's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Pianese Clean Sheet 68%
Perugia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pianese Perugia
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 14 12
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.15 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.15 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Pianese vs Perugia
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Pianese
0:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Pianese
1:1
Aug 24, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Pianese vs Perugia
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pianese Compare

Top Goalscorer Coccia L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bertini M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Nepi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pianese 59 / 100
Perugia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pianese Perugia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pianese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perugia let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Pianese found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Pianese stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pianese VS Perugia
1 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.29
75% Over 1.5 71%
13% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Pianese

(Home)
15 Aug
Carpi
3 : 2
Pianese
05 Aug
Pianese
2 : 0
Montevarchi
13 May
Lecco
1 : 1
Pianese
10 May
Pianese
1 : 1
Lecco
06 May
Juventus U23
0 : 2
Pianese
Page 1 of 6

Perugia

(Away)
15 Aug
Perugia
1 : 2
Vis Pesaro
02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1
Grosseto
26 Apr
Forli FC
1 : 1
Perugia
18 Apr
Perugia
0 : 1
Campobasso
12 Apr
Ternana
2 : 2
Perugia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arezzo 36 24 8 4 64:24 80
2 Ascoli 36 23 8 5 63:23 77
3 Ravenna 36 22 7 7 50:30 73
4 Campobasso 36 17 10 9 49:37 59
5 Juventus U23 36 14 11 11 46:43 53
6 Pianese 36 11 17 8 37:34 50
7 Pineto 36 13 11 12 42:45 50
8 Gubbio 36 11 15 10 31:32 48
9 Ternana 36 14 11 11 44:40 48
10 Vis Pesaro 36 11 13 12 38:36 46
11 Livorno 36 12 7 17 39:51 43
12 Forli FC 36 10 10 16 41:52 40
13 Carpi 36 10 10 16 35:48 40
14 Perugia 36 8 14 14 38:44 38
15 Guidonia 1937 36 8 14 14 30:36 38
16 Sambenedettese 36 8 13 15 30:37 37
17 Sassari Torres 36 6 18 12 32:45 36
18 Bra 36 6 14 16 37:54 32
19 US Pontedera 36 3 11 22 27:62 20
20 Rimini 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)