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Piast Zmigrod vs Polonia Nysa

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Club Friendly 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Piast Zmigrod play Polonia Nysa in the Club Friendly 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Piast Zmigrod averaged 1.17 goals scored and 2.41 conceded. Polonia Nysa averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Piast Zmigrod won 2, Polonia Nysa won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 8, 2023 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.38 for Piast Zmigrod and 2.00 for Polonia Nysa. This points to a Piast Zmigrod double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Piast Zmigrod
25%
Draws
32%
Polonia Nysa
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Piast Zmigrod

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Piast Zmigrod picked up more points recently compared to Polonia Nysa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.38 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Piast Zmigrod Clean Sheet 10%
Polonia Nysa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Piast Zmigrod Polonia Nysa
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 8 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 1.17 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.41 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2023 Club Friendly
Piast Zmigrod vs Polonia Nysa
1:1
May 26, 2021 III Liga - Group III
Piast Zmigrod vs Polonia Nysa
4:0
Oct 24, 2020 III Liga - Group III
Polonia Nysa vs Piast Zmigrod
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Piast Zmigrod Compare

Top Goalscorer Lukaszewski P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Polonia Nysa Compare

Top Goalscorer Trialist I
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Piast Zmigrod 41 / 100
Polonia Nysa 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Piast Zmigrod Polonia Nysa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Piast Zmigrod or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Piast Zmigrod attacking → ← attacking Polonia Nysa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Piast Zmigrod scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Polonia Nysa let in goals in 88% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Piast Zmigrod went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Polonia Nysa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 33
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.75