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Pineto vs Porto Sant'Elpidio Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Minnozzi M.
18' Event
Minnozzi M.
57' Event
Spagna S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 game between Pineto and Porto Sant'Elpidio finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pineto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Pineto
30%
Draws
41%
Porto Sant'Elpidio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Porto Sant'Elpidio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pineto come out ahead of Porto Sant'Elpidio on wins alone.
  • Porto Sant'Elpidio are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Pineto have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Pineto Clean Sheet 17%
Porto Sant'Elpidio Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pineto Porto Sant'Elpidio
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 9 3
Losses 13 23
Goals Scored 1.26 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Pineto vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
2:1
Dec 20, 2020 Serie D - Group F
Porto Sant'Elpidio vs Pineto
0:3
Apr 5, 2020 Serie D - Group F
Pineto vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
0:0
Nov 23, 2019 Serie D - Group F
Porto Sant'Elpidio vs Pineto
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pineto Compare

Top Goalscorer Minnozzi M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Porto Sant'Elpidio Compare

Top Goalscorer Spagna S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pineto 23 / 100
Porto Sant'Elpidio 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pineto Porto Sant'Elpidio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Porto Sant'Elpidio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Porto Sant'Elpidio conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Pineto's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 39 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Pineto stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pineto VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pineto

(Home)
26 Sept
Pineto
0 : 4
Grosseto
20 Sept
Campobasso
2 : 2
Pineto
16 Sept
Pineto
1 : 1
Forli FC
12 Sept
Pineto
2 : 1
Sambenedettese
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
Page 1 of 8

Porto Sant'Elpidio

(Away)
19 Jun
Porto Sant'Elpidio
2 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Jun
Vastese
1 : 0
Porto Sant'Elpidio
13 Jun
Porto Sant'Elpidio
3 : 2
Castelnuovo Vomano
06 Jun
Campobasso
1 : 1
Porto Sant'Elpidio
30 May
Agnonese
1 : 0
Porto Sant'Elpidio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 21 9 4 63:29 72
2 Notaresco Calcio 34 18 10 6 59:34 64
3 Pineto 34 15 11 8 45:33 56
4 Cynthialbalonga 34 14 14 6 51:35 56
5 Matese 34 15 11 8 46:38 56
6 Castelfidardo 34 14 13 7 46:33 55
7 Recanatese 34 13 11 10 62:45 50
8 Castelnuovo Vomano 34 14 8 12 53:53 50
9 Vastese 34 12 13 9 45:37 48
10 Montegiorgio 34 13 7 14 42:42 46
11 FC Rieti 34 12 8 14 38:42 44
12 Aprilia 34 11 11 12 43:49 44
13 Roma City 34 8 16 10 40:41 40
14 US Tolentino 34 9 13 12 52:53 40
15 Vastogirardi 34 10 10 14 46:51 40
16 Giulianova 34 7 10 17 33:50 31
17 Porto Sant'Elpidio 34 4 5 25 22:63 17
18 Agnonese 34 3 6 25 25:83 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 (Play Offs)