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Piratas vs Venados FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Luis "Pirata" Fuente, Boca del Río
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Ochoa Brandon
23'
Lora S.
36' Event
Gamboa J.

AI Match Summary

Piratas in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Piratas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Piratas
20%
Draws
47%
Venados FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Venados FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Venados FC lately — more wins on the board than Piratas.
  • Venados FC are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Piratas Clean Sheet 10%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Piratas Venados FC
Matches Played 12 29
Wins 5 11
Draws 3 7
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.5 2
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Piratas vs Venados FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Piratas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gamboa J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Venados FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Piratas 22 / 100
Venados FC 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Piratas Venados FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Venados FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Venados FC let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Piratas scored in 67% of their last 12 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Piratas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Piratas VS Venados FC
1.5 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Piratas

(Home)
10 Oct
Tlaxcala
4 : 2
Piratas
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Piratas
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
11 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 1
Piratas
Page 1 of 3

Venados FC

(Away)
10 Oct
Venados FC
1 : 1
Leones Negros
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2
Venados FC
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1
Club Atletico Morelia
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0
Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leones Negros 12 7 3 2 28:17 24
2 Atletico La Paz 12 7 2 3 28:15 23
3 Club Atletico Morelia 12 7 2 3 22:13 23
4 Venados FC 12 6 2 4 27:22 20
5 Piratas 12 5 3 4 18:14 18
6 Zacatecas Mineros 11 5 2 4 23:19 17
7 Cancun 11 5 2 4 19:15 17
8 Alacranes de Durango 11 5 2 4 11:11 17
9 Correcaminos 12 4 4 4 20:20 16
10 Tlaxcala 12 4 3 5 23:25 15
11 Tapatio 11 4 2 5 19:19 14
12 Dorados de Sinaloa 11 3 4 4 20:20 13
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 4 1 7 10:23 13
14 Jaiba Brava 11 3 2 6 12:19 11
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 11 1 5 5 11:18 8
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 11 2 1 8 9:30 7
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)