Sport Picks

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Pistoiese vs Piacenza

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2025/2026
Sun, May 10, 2026
1 - 3
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Saporetti S.
31' Event
D'Agostino S.
45'
Rizq K.

AI Match Summary

Piacenza in this Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Pistoiese
20%
Draws
48%
Piacenza
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Piacenza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Piacenza at 1.93 per game, Pistoiese at 1.63.
  • 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Pistoiese, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 17%
Piacenza Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pistoiese Piacenza
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 19
Draws 7 4
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.63 1.93
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Piacenza
1:3
Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Piacenza
1:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Piacenza vs Pistoiese
2:2
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Piacenza vs Pistoiese
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Piacenza
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Saporetti S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Piacenza Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Agostino S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pistoiese 31 / 100
Piacenza 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pistoiese Piacenza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Piacenza Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pistoiese scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Piacenza conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Pistoiese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pistoiese VS Piacenza
2.38 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pistoiese

(Home)
14 Aug
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Pistoiese
01 Aug
Carpi
1 : 2
Pistoiese
10 May
Pistoiese
1 : 3
Piacenza
03 May
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Cittadella Vis Modena
26 Apr
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 1
Pistoiese
Page 1 of 6

Piacenza

(Away)
17 May
Lentigione
0 : 2
Piacenza
10 May
Pistoiese
1 : 3
Piacenza
03 May
Piacenza
3 : 1
Crema
26 Apr
Tropical Coriano
1 : 0
Piacenza
19 Apr
Piacenza
3 : 1
Pro Sesto
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Lentigione 3
Pro Palazzolo 2
Pistoiese 1
Piacenza 3
Final
Lentigione 0
Piacenza 2