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Pistoiese vs Tropical Coriano Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Malo A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 game between Pistoiese and Tropical Coriano finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tropical Coriano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

67%
Pistoiese
15%
Draws
18%
Tropical Coriano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Tropical Coriano haven't matched Pistoiese's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Pistoiese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 68%
Tropical Coriano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pistoiese Tropical Coriano
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 21 6
Draws 5 8
Losses 3 16
Goals Scored 1.97 0.8
Goals Conceded 0.52 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Tropical Coriano
0:1
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Tropical Coriano vs Pistoiese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pistoiese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Tropical Coriano Compare

Top Goalscorer Malo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pistoiese 95 / 100
Tropical Coriano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pistoiese Tropical Coriano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pistoiese scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Tropical Coriano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Pistoiese went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Tropical Coriano registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pistoiese VS Tropical Coriano
1.75 Goals Scored 0.71
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 14%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pistoiese

(Home)
27 Sept
Pistoiese
3 : 0
Sant'Angelo
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pistoiese
2 : 0
Solbiatese
Page 1 of 6

Tropical Coriano

(Away)
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 2
Lentigione
12 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
1 : 0
Tropical Coriano
06 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1
Varese FC
10 May
Crema
2 : 0
Tropical Coriano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Desenzano Calvina 34 23 8 3 60:21 77
2 Lentigione 34 22 7 5 51:23 73
3 Pistoiese 34 20 11 3 61:22 71
4 Piacenza 34 19 7 8 60:35 64
5 Pro Palazzolo 34 16 9 9 44:31 57
6 Pro Sesto 34 15 10 9 45:30 55
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 34 15 10 9 35:29 55
8 Rovato Vertovese 34 14 10 10 35:29 52
9 Sangiuliano City 34 14 8 12 41:45 47
10 SCD Progresso 34 10 9 15 38:42 39
11 Sant'Angelo 34 10 9 15 38:51 39
12 Correggese 34 9 12 13 35:36 39
13 Crema 34 9 11 14 35:47 38
14 Imolese 34 8 10 16 28:47 34
15 Sasso Marconi 34 8 7 19 33:49 31
16 Tropical Coriano 34 7 10 17 29:45 31
17 Trevigliese 34 5 8 21 31:62 23
18 Tuttocuoio 34 0 8 26 18:73 8
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Out)