Sport Picks

Plymouth vs Swindon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

EFL Trophy Home Park, Plymouth

Swindon

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-3. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Swindon have shipped 1.62 goals a game lately, while Plymouth have conceded 1.31 and scored 1.97. Past meetings favor Plymouth slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 29, 2023, ending 3:1. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.13, favoring Plymouth. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Plymouth

20%

Draws

29%

Swindon

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Plymouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence

Swindon haven't matched Plymouth's recent run of results.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
Plymouth have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Swindon, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%

Plymouth Clean Sheet 20%

Swindon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Plymouth	Swindon
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	19	9
Draws	4	6
Losses	6	14
Goals Scored	1.97	1.21
Goals Conceded	1.31	1.62
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2023 Club Friendly

Swindon vs Plymouth

3:1

Sep 20, 2022 EFL Trophy

Swindon vs Plymouth

1:3

Oct 12, 2021 EFL Trophy

Plymouth vs Swindon

1:3

Jan 26, 2021 League One

Swindon vs Plymouth

0:2

Nov 3, 2020 League One

Plymouth vs Swindon

4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Plymouth 32 / 100

Swindon 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Plymouth Swindon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Plymouth's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Swindon conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Plymouth went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Plymouth VS Swindon

2 Goals Scored 0.75

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25

88% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Plymouth

(Home)

24 Oct

Cambridge Utd

2 : 3

Plymouth

20 Oct

Stevenage

3 : 0

Plymouth

17 Oct

Plymouth

0 : 2

Huddersfield

10 Oct

Plymouth

2 : 1

AFC Wimbledon

06 Oct

Newport

2 : 3

Plymouth

Page 1 of 6

Swindon

(Away)

24 Oct

Bristol Rovers

0 : 0

Swindon

20 Oct

Barnet

1 : 3

Swindon

17 Oct

Swindon

1 : 1

Walsall

10 Oct

Swindon

0 : 1

Crewe

03 Oct

Rochdale

1 : 0

Swindon

Page 1 of 6