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Pocos de Caldas vs Guarani-MG

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 3 2023 game between Pocos de Caldas and Guarani-MG finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarani-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Pocos de Caldas
20%
Draws
51%
Guarani-MG
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guarani-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Guarani-MG carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Guarani-MG's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Mineiro 3 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Guarani-MG here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Pocos de Caldas Clean Sheet 20%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pocos de Caldas Guarani-MG
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 8 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2024 Mineiro 3
Pocos de Caldas vs Guarani-MG
0:2
Sep 23, 2024 Mineiro 3
Guarani-MG vs Pocos de Caldas
3:0
Oct 21, 2023 Mineiro 3
Pocos de Caldas vs Guarani-MG
1:4
Aug 26, 2023 Mineiro 3
Guarani-MG vs Pocos de Caldas
1:0
May 16, 2010 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Pocos de Caldas
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pocos de Caldas 28 / 100
Guarani-MG 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pocos de Caldas Guarani-MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani-MG let in goals in 76% of their last 34 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Pocos de Caldas's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Pocos de Caldas has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Guarani-MG
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pocos de Caldas

(Home)
19 Oct
Tupynambas
3 : 2
Pocos de Caldas
13 Oct
Pocos de Caldas
3 : 0
Tres Coracoes
08 Oct
Pocos de Caldas
1 : 1
Inter de Minas
02 Oct
Villa Real
2 : 0
Pocos de Caldas
29 Sept
Pocos de Caldas
0 : 2
Guarani-MG
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Guarani-MG

(Away)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America TO 6 5 1 0 8:2 16
2 Valeriodoce 6 4 0 2 6:4 12
3 Juventus Minasnovense 6 2 1 3 7:7 7
4 Boston City 6 0 0 6 4:12 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guarani-MG 6 5 0 1 10:2 15
2 Pocos de Caldas 6 3 1 2 6:6 10
3 Villa Real 5 1 1 3 1:4 4
4 Tres Coracoes 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Contagem 6 4 1 1 5:2 13
2 Coimbra Esporte Clube 6 3 2 1 13:3 11
3 Inter de Minas 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
4 Serranense 6 0 0 6 4:19 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mamore 8 6 2 0 16:4 20
2 Araxa 8 4 2 2 11:6 14
3 Paracatu 7 3 1 3 9:8 10
4 Nacional Uberaba 7 1 3 3 4:9 6
5 Pirapora 8 1 0 7 3:16 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)