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Poggibonsi vs Ghiviborgo Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Salto D. A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Poggibonsi and Ghiviborgo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Poggibonsi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Poggibonsi
30%
Draws
12%
Ghiviborgo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Poggibonsi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Ghiviborgo haven't matched Poggibonsi's recent run of results.
  • Poggibonsi are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 68%
Ghiviborgo Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poggibonsi Ghiviborgo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 8 9
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.83 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 0.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Ghiviborgo
1:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Poggibonsi
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Ghiviborgo
1:2
Oct 19, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Poggibonsi
1:2
Jan 21, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Ghiviborgo
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poggibonsi Compare

Top Goalscorer Salto D. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Ghiviborgo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.49
Avg xA / game 0.3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poggibonsi 68 / 100
Ghiviborgo 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poggibonsi Ghiviborgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Poggibonsi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ghiviborgo has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Poggibonsi's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Poggibonsi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Poggibonsi VS Ghiviborgo
0.67 Goals Scored 0.25
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.38
33% Over 1.5 50%
17% Over 2.5 25%
17% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Poggibonsi

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2
Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0
Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 6

Ghiviborgo

(Away)
04 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 1
Tau
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1
Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Mezzolara
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 3
Terranuova Traiana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)