Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E

Orvietana

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Poggibonsi play Orvietana in the Serie D - Group E. It looks like a close match. Recently, Poggibonsi averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Orvietana averaged 0.93 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Poggibonsi won 1, Orvietana won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Poggibonsi and 0.69 for Orvietana. This points to a Orvietana double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Poggibonsi

34%

Draws

36%

Orvietana

Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Orvietana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Poggibonsi picked up more points recently compared to Orvietana.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 0.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 51%

Over 2.5 Goals 34%

Over 3.5 Goals 20%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 28%

Orvietana Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 46%

Second Half Goal 48%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Poggibonsi	Orvietana
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	8
Draws	8	11
Losses	15	11
Goals Scored	0.83	0.93
Goals Conceded	1.27	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group E

Orvietana vs Poggibonsi

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group E

Poggibonsi vs Orvietana

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Orvietana vs Poggibonsi

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

4:0

Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Orvietana vs Poggibonsi

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Poggibonsi vs Orvietana

Possession: 51% - 60% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poggibonsi 33 / 100

Orvietana 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Poggibonsi Orvietana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Orvietana or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +21.4%

3.57

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Poggibonsi attacking → ← attacking Orvietana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poggibonsi scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Orvietana let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Poggibonsi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Orvietana lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 35

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Grosseto	34	22	6	6	58:25	72
2	Tau	34	18	9	7	53:33	63
3	Prato	34	20	5	9	49:29	63
4	Siena	34	17	9	8	57:35	60
5	Seravezza Pozzi	34	15	12	7	42:29	57
6	Terranuova Traiana	34	14	9	11	28:30	51
7	Foligno	34	14	9	11	45:37	51
8	Scandicci	34	11	15	8	39:32	48
9	Montevarchi	34	10	16	8	28:32	46
10	Sporting Trestina	34	10	12	12	40:42	42
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	9	13	12	30:35	40
12	Ghiviborgo	34	10	10	14	42:44	40
13	Orvietana	34	9	11	14	33:37	38
14	Follonica Gavorrano	34	9	10	15	36:49	37
15	Camaiore Calcio	34	9	8	17	41:54	35
16	Poggibonsi	34	7	10	17	29:46	31
17	Cannara	34	6	8	20	24:59	26
18	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	34	2	16	16	20:46	22