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Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa

Poland Poland

Division 1 2025/2026 Stadion MZOS Znicz
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki play Polonia Warszawa in the Division 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki averaged 0.96 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. Polonia Warszawa averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 4, Polonia Warszawa won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 14, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki and 1.50 for Polonia Warszawa. This points to a Polonia Warszawa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
19%
Draws
52%
Polonia Warszawa
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Polonia Warszawa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki picked up more points recently compared to Polonia Warszawa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 16%
Polonia Warszawa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Polonia Warszawa
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 3 13
Draws 12 3
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.96 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.82 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Division 1
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
3:2
Aug 30, 2025 Division 1
Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
2:1
Jan 18, 2025 Club Friendly
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
3:1
Jul 12, 2024 Club Friendly
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
4:2
Feb 5, 2022 Club Friendly
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Noiszewski K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Adkonis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Polonia Warszawa Compare

Top Goalscorer Skrabb S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zjawinski L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 29 / 100
Polonia Warszawa 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Polonia Warszawa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Polonia Warszawa or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki attacking → ← attacking Polonia Warszawa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Polonia Warszawa let in goals in 81% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Polonia Warszawa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 42
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wisla342011372:3271
2Slask Wroclaw341711669:4762
3KS Wieczysta Krakow34169970:4757
4Chrobry Glogow341671148:3655
5LKS Lodz341591056:4854
6Polonia Warszawa341581152:4953
7Ruch Chorzow341411954:4653
8Legnica341571252:5352
9Puszcza341213945:4049
10Polonia Bytom341381356:5047
11Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3411121151:5445
12Odra Opole3411111234:4044
13S. Rzeszow341271549:6043
14Stal Mielec341061851:6236
15Pogon Siedlce34991633:4336
16Pruszkow34772040:6828
17Leczna345121739:6227
18Tychy34582140:7423