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Pohja-Tallinna vs Jarva-Jaani

Estonia Estonia

Estonian Cup 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pohja-Tallinna play Jarva-Jaani in the Estonian Cup 2020/2021. Pohja-Tallinna are favorites here. Recently, Pohja-Tallinna averaged 2.23 goals scored and 3.77 conceded. Jarva-Jaani averaged 1.81 goals scored and 4.26 conceded. In past meetings, Pohja-Tallinna won 2, Jarva-Jaani won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 16, 2020 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Pohja-Tallinna and 1.00 for Jarva-Jaani. This points to a Pohja-Tallinna double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Pohja-Tallinna
25%
Draws
15%
Jarva-Jaani
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Pohja-Tallinna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Pohja-Tallinna picked up more points recently compared to Jarva-Jaani.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 91%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 98%
Over 2.5 Goals 91%
Over 3.5 Goals 55%
Over 4.5 Goals 27%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Pohja-Tallinna Clean Sheet 23%
Jarva-Jaani Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 88%
Second Half Goal 93%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pohja-Tallinna Jarva-Jaani
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 10 8
Draws 2 0
Losses 19 19
Goals Scored 2.23 1.81
Goals Conceded 3.77 4.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 5.88 4.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2020 Estonian Cup
Pohja-Tallinna vs Jarva-Jaani
4:0
Jul 25, 2017 Estonian Cup
Jarva-Jaani vs Pohja-Tallinna
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pohja-Tallinna Compare

Top Goalscorer Kivi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Umukoro J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Jarva-Jaani Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pohja-Tallinna 59 / 100
Jarva-Jaani 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pohja-Tallinna Jarva-Jaani

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pohja-Tallinna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Pohja-Tallinna & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.4%
1.18
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pohja-Tallinna attacking → ← attacking Jarva-Jaani

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pohja-Tallinna scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Jarva-Jaani let in goals in 88% of their last 25 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Pohja-Tallinna went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Jarva-Jaani lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 24
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
5.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.75