Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Poland vs Ukraine

World World

Friendly International 2024 PGE Narodowy, Warsaw
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Sub
Milik A. In: Urbanski K.
Out: Milik A.
11' Event
Walukiewicz S.
16' Event
Zielinski P.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Poland and Ukraine finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Poland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Poland
15%
Draws
48%
Ukraine
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ukraine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Ukraine have managed 1.43 goals a game lately — Poland are scoring more at 1.67.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Poland Clean Sheet 68%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poland Ukraine
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.67 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
0:2
Jun 7, 2024 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
3:1
Nov 11, 2020 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
2:0
Mar 31, 2020 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
0:0
Jun 21, 2016 Euro
Ukraine vs Poland
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poland Compare

Top Goalscorer Walukiewicz S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zielinski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Ukraine Compare

Top Goalscorer Dovbyk A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poland 41 / 100
Ukraine 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poland Ukraine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Poland Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poland found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Ukraine conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Poland has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Poland VS Ukraine
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Poland

(Home)
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2
Nigeria
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Sweden
3 : 2
Poland
26 Mar
Poland
2 : 1
Albania
17 Nov
Malta
2 : 3
Poland
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Ukraine

(Away)
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 0
Albania
26 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 3
Sweden
16 Nov
Ukraine
2 : 0
Iceland
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