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Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 2 2025/2026 Boonyachinda Stadium, Bangkok
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Marom W.
Own Goal
53' Event
Pedro Henrique
57' Event
Capistrano J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Police Tero advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Police Tero
15%
Draws
46%
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nong Bua Pitchaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead of Police Tero on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nong Bua Pitchaya's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Nong Bua Pitchaya arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Police Tero, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Police Tero Clean Sheet 10%
Nong Bua Pitchaya Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Tero Nong Bua Pitchaya
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 15
Draws 8 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.2 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Thai League 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero
3:1
May 3, 2026 Thai League 2
Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
2:1
Mar 28, 2026 Thai League 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero
6:3
Nov 9, 2025 Thai League 2
Police Tero vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
5:2
Apr 2, 2023 Thai League 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Police Tero Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Nong Bua Pitchaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Capistrano J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police Tero 22 / 100
Nong Bua Pitchaya 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Tero Nong Bua Pitchaya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nong Bua Pitchaya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Police Tero's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Police Tero went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Police Tero VS Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.5 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Police Tero

(Home)
19 Sept
Khonkaen United
2 : 0
Police Tero
15 Sept
Police Tero
0 : 3
Songkhla
11 Sept
Pattaya United
0 : 3
Police Tero
06 Sept
Police Tero
1 : 0
Muang Loei Utd
29 Aug
Muang Thong Utd
2 : 0
Police Tero
Page 1 of 6

Nong Bua Pitchaya

(Away)
19 Sept
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4 : 3
Satun FC
16 Sept
Uttaradit FC
2 : 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
12 Sept
Muang Thong Utd
2 : 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
06 Sept
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2 : 0
Kasetsart
23 May
Pattani
3 : 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Pattani 5
Chainat Hornbill 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya 4
Police Tero 3
Final
Pattani 4
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3