Sport Picks

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Police vs UPDF FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Kiira Road Police Arena, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Bbaale C.
53' Event
Obedi B.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Police and UPDF FC finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Police.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Police
35%
Draws
16%
UPDF FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Police come out ahead of UPDF FC on wins alone.
  • Police are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Police Clean Sheet 68%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police UPDF FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.31 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Premier League
Police vs UPDF FC
2:0
Nov 6, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Police
1:2
May 15, 2025 Premier League
Police vs UPDF FC
1:0
Nov 27, 2024 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Police
2:2
Feb 10, 2022 Premier League
Police vs UPDF FC
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Bbaale C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Obedi B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

UPDF FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 59 / 100
UPDF FC 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police UPDF FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

UPDF FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Police has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Police VS UPDF FC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
02 Sept
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Police
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
Police
1 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
12 May
Police
0 : 0
Vipers
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UPDF FC

(Away)
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
13 May
UPDF FC
1 : 2
Kampala City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)