Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru South 2023/2024

Abertillery Bluebirds

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pontardawe play Abertillery Bluebirds in the Cymru South 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pontardawe averaged 1.7 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Abertillery Bluebirds averaged 1.21 goals scored and 2.97 conceded. In past meetings, Pontardawe won 0, Abertillery Bluebirds won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 2, 2024 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.75 for Pontardawe and 1.69 for Abertillery Bluebirds. This points to a Pontardawe double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Pontardawe

24%

Draws

28%

Abertillery Bluebirds

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Pontardawe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

Pontardawe picked up more points recently compared to Abertillery Bluebirds.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.75 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 92%

Over 2.5 Goals 77%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%

Pontardawe Clean Sheet 13%

Abertillery Bluebirds Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 83%

Second Half Goal 87%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pontardawe	Abertillery Bluebirds
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	8	5
Draws	8	6
Losses	14	18
Goals Scored	1.7	1.21
Goals Conceded	2.4	2.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	4.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2024 Cymru South

Pontardawe vs Abertillery Bluebirds

Possession: 47% - 59% Cards: 3 - 0

2:2

Sep 9, 2023 Cymru South

Abertillery Bluebirds vs Pontardawe

Possession: 40% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pontardawe Compare

Top Goalscorer Harrris C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Berry S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Abertillery Bluebirds Compare

Top Goalscorer Rees T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Williams K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pontardawe 46 / 100

Abertillery Bluebirds 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pontardawe Abertillery Bluebirds

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pontardawe or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.6%

1.41

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pontardawe attacking → ← attacking Abertillery Bluebirds

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pontardawe scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Abertillery Bluebirds let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Pontardawe went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Abertillery Bluebirds lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 21

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Briton Ferry	30	23	2	5	87:39	71
2	Llanelli	30	20	4	6	80:40	64
3	Ammanford Town	30	17	6	7	60:42	57
4	Cambrian United	30	14	8	8	60:37	50
5	Caerau Ely	30	15	4	11	72:60	49
6	Carmarthen Town	30	12	11	7	50:39	47
7	Afan Lido	30	14	4	12	68:56	46
8	Goytre Utd	30	12	7	11	58:59	43
9	Cwmbran Celtic	30	12	6	12	69:64	42
10	Baglan Dragons	30	11	8	11	46:41	41
11	Trefelin	30	10	8	12	47:63	38
12	Llantwit Major	30	9	8	13	44:54	35
13	Taffs Well	30	8	8	14	44:49	32
14	Pontardawe	30	8	8	14	52:70	32
15	Abertillery Bluebirds	30	3	6	21	34:94	15
16	Abergavenny Town	30	2	2	26	20:84	8