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Pontardawe vs Newport City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
29' Event
Lynch T.
69' Event
Lynch T.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Pontardawe and Newport City finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newport City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Pontardawe
30%
Draws
16%
Newport City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pontardawe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Pontardawe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Pontardawe are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Pontardawe Clean Sheet 15%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pontardawe Newport City
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.48 1.11
Goals Conceded 2.31 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Cymru South
Pontardawe vs Newport City
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pontardawe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Newport City Compare

Top Goalscorer Lynch T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sage E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pontardawe 48 / 100
Newport City 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pontardawe Newport City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pontardawe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newport City has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Pontardawe scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Pontardawe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pontardawe VS Newport City
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pontardawe

(Home)
10 Oct
Llantwit Major
1 : 1
Pontardawe
03 Oct
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 3
Pontardawe
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
11 Sept
Pure Swansea
4 : 0
Pontardawe
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 6

Newport City

(Away)
09 Oct
Caerphilly
3 : 2
Newport City
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1
Newport City
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Newport City
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 9 6 3 0 30:11 21
2 Pontypridd United 10 6 2 2 24:17 20
3 Aberystwyth 9 6 1 2 22:9 19
4 Caerau Ely 10 6 1 3 22:18 19
5 Baglan Dragons 11 5 2 4 12:12 17
6 Ynyshir Albions 9 4 4 1 15:9 16
7 Carmarthen Town 10 4 3 3 22:21 15
8 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 3 4 3 20:18 13
9 Treowen 10 4 1 5 19:21 13
10 Afan Lido 11 3 3 5 18:22 12
11 Caerphilly 10 3 2 5 12:19 11
12 Pontardawe 9 3 1 5 15:17 10
13 Cardiff Draconians 8 2 3 3 11:14 9
14 Newport City 8 2 2 4 12:9 8
15 Llantwit Major 9 2 2 5 8:21 8
16 Llanelli 11 0 2 9 9:33 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)