Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Marcelo Ajul
23' Event
Danilo Barcelos
Assist: Tavares D.
31' Event
Felipinho
Assist: Chrystian Barletta

AI Match Summary

Sport Recife in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sport Recife.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Ponte Preta
28%
Draws
50%
Sport Recife
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Sport Recife

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sport Recife lately — more wins on the board than Ponte Preta.
  • Win probability leans Sport Recife's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Ponte Preta Clean Sheet 16%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ponte Preta Sport Recife
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 4 13
Draws 3 9
Losses 22 6
Goals Scored 0.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife
1:3
Nov 17, 2024 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife
0:4
Jul 27, 2024 Serie B
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta
3:1
Oct 9, 2023 Serie B
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta
3:3
Jun 11, 2023 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ponte Preta Compare

Top Goalscorer Danilo Barcelos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Sport Recife Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedro Perotti
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ponte Preta 23 / 100
Sport Recife 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ponte Preta Sport Recife

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Sport Recife has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Ponte Preta's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Away concern: Sport Recife has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ponte Preta VS Sport Recife
0.38 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ponte Preta

(Home)
18 Jul
Ponte Preta
1 : 2
Goias
08 Jul
Ponte Preta
1 : 2
Criciuma
03 Jul
Fortaleza
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
28 Jun
Atletico GO
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
22 Jun
Ponte Preta
0 : 2
Novorizontino
Page 1 of 6

Sport Recife

(Away)
18 Jul
Sport Recife
2 : 2
Operario-PR
10 Jul
Sport Recife
3 : 3
Botafogo SP
04 Jul
Criciuma
1 : 0
Sport Recife
28 Jun
Fortaleza
2 : 1
Sport Recife
19 Jun
Sport Recife
1 : 1
Atletico GO
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma18106222:1236
2EC Juventude1895419:832
3Operario-PR1895424:2032
4Vila Nova FC1894525:2131
5Fortaleza1894521:1731
6Novorizontino1886428:1730
7Goias1884620:2428
8Sao Bernardo1876524:1727
9Sport Recife1869323:1727
10Atletico GO1867519:1925
11Cuiaba1859414:1324
12Athletic Club1859416:1624
13CRB1865728:3223
14Nautico1863922:2321
15Botafogo SP1856720:1821
16Londrina1855825:2520
17Ceara1847716:2119
18Avai1845919:2517
19Ponte Preta18221412:358
20America MG18151212:298
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)