Sport Picks
Portimonense vs Lusitania FC
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão 
Match Events
45'
45'
Canario F.
46'
46'
Sub
Alhassan I. In: Silva J.
Out: Alhassan I.
46'
46'
Sub
Teixeira M. In: Tokinho Doria
Out: Teixeira M.
AI Match Summary
Portimonense in this Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portimonense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lusitania FC lately — more wins on the board than Portimonense.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Portimonense Clean Sheet 22%
Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portimonense | Lusitania FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 25 |
| Wins | 8 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.14 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Portimonense vs Lusitania FC
3:2
Dec 7, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Lusitania FC vs Portimonense
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portimonense Compare
Top Goalscorer Dauda M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57
Lusitania FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Faria B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rocha L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portimonense 32 / 100
Lusitania FC 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portimonense Lusitania FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LUS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 5.00 goals.
Lusitania FC let in goals in 72% of their last 25 matches.
Portimonense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Lusitania FC's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Portimonense VS Lusitania FC
1.14 Goals Scored 0.75
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Portimonense
(Home) 15 Jul
Portimonense
0 : 3 Rio Ave
17 May
Portimonense
1 : 0 SC Farense
09 May
FC Felgueiras
1 : 1 Portimonense
03 May
Portimonense
3 : 2 Chaves
25 Apr
Leixoes
2 : 0 Portimonense
Page 1 of 6
15 Jul
Portimonense
0 : 3 Rio Ave
17 May
Portimonense
1 : 0 SC Farense
03 May
Portimonense
3 : 2 Chaves
19 Apr
Portimonense
3 : 2 Lusitania FC
21 Mar
Portimonense
2 : 1 FC Porto B
Page 1 of 4
Lusitania FC
(Away) 25 Jul
Lusitania FC
1 : 0 Academico Viseu
18 Jul
Lusitania FC
0 : 2 Braga B
15 Jul
Famalicao
1 : 0 Lusitania FC
17 May
Leixoes
2 : 1 Lusitania FC
09 May
Lusitania FC
1 : 2 Torreense
Page 1 of 5
15 Jul
Famalicao
1 : 0 Lusitania FC
17 May
Leixoes
2 : 1 Lusitania FC
02 May
Oliveirense
0 : 0 Lusitania FC
19 Apr
Portimonense
3 : 2 Lusitania FC
05 Apr
Leiria
0 : 0 Lusitania FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 50:29 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 58:33 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 46:33 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 39:40 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:42 | 51 |
| 6 | Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52:46 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 46:55 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 37:40 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:44 | 44 |
| 11 | FC Felgueiras | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 34:38 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitania FC | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 44:52 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 41:34 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37:39 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 39:49 | 40 |
| 16 | SC Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 31:37 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34:48 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:49 | 34 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)
