Sport Picks
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL League One Fitzpatrick Stadium, Portland, ME 
Match Events
4'
4'
Wright O.
10'
10'
Kidd M.
21'
21'
Karamoko H.
Assist: Bolma J.
AI Match Summary
The USL League One game between Portland Hearts of Pine and Forward Madison finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Forward Madison.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
35%
25%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Portland Hearts of Pine
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
25%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Forward Madison come out ahead of Portland Hearts of Pine on wins alone.
- 25% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Forward Madison here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Portland Hearts of Pine Clean Sheet 13%
Forward Madison Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portland Hearts of Pine | Forward Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 14 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.1 | 1.04 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 USL League One
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 USL League One
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison
1:3
May 24, 2025 USL League One
Forward Madison vs Portland Hearts of Pine
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portland Hearts of Pine Compare
Top Goalscorer Gonzalez D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Forward Madison Compare
Top Goalscorer Karamoko H.
1 Goals Assists Leader Carmichael R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portland Hearts of Pine 35 / 100
Forward Madison 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portland Hearts of Pine Forward Madison
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Forward Madison Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Portland Hearts of Pine found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Forward Madison conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Portland Hearts of Pine went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Portland Hearts of Pine VS Forward Madison
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Portland Hearts of Pine
(Home) 04 Oct
Spokane Velocity
3 : 3 Portland Hearts of Pine
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
19 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
13 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 0 AV Alta FC
06 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
2 : 1 Westchester SC
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
13 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 0 AV Alta FC
06 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
2 : 1 Westchester SC
29 Aug
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Fort Wayne
16 Aug
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Forward Madison
Page 1 of 3
Forward Madison
(Away) 03 Oct
Fort Wayne
0 : 0 Forward Madison
26 Sept
Forward Madison
0 : 1 Spokane Velocity
19 Sept
Forward Madison
3 : 0 AV Alta FC
16 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 0 Forward Madison
12 Sept
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Fort Wayne
0 : 0 Forward Madison
16 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 0 Forward Madison
06 Sept
Corpus Christi FC
0 : 2 Forward Madison
29 Aug
Richmond Kickers
1 : 2 Forward Madison
16 Aug
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Forward Madison
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 70:42 | 63 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 53:32 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 52:30 | 52 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 47:40 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49:34 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:36 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46:37 | 45 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 34:44 | 37 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 51:48 | 36 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 39:43 | 33 |
| 13 | AV Alta FC | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44:55 | 31 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 36:59 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 30:52 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 30:60 | 23 |
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)
