Sport Picks
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL League One Fitzpatrick Stadium, Portland, ME 
Match Events
4'
4'
Kiingi K.
Assist: Rosa A.
6'
6'
Faye S.
7'
7'
Roed S.
Assist: Rosa A.
AI Match Summary
The USL League One game between Portland Hearts of Pine and Sarasota Paradise finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sarasota Paradise.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sarasota Paradise
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sarasota Paradise carry the better recent record into this one.
- Sarasota Paradise are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Sarasota Paradise have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Portland Hearts of Pine Clean Sheet 10%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portland Hearts of Pine | Sarasota Paradise |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 15 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.06 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 USL League One
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise
1:4
Jul 29, 2026 Club Friendly
Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine
2:2
Jul 26, 2026 Club Friendly
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portland Hearts of Pine Compare
Top Goalscorer Kamara J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Sarasota Paradise Compare
Top Goalscorer Roed S.
2 Goals Assists Leader Kiingi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portland Hearts of Pine 10 / 100
Sarasota Paradise 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portland Hearts of Pine Sarasota Paradise
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sarasota Paradise Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Portland Hearts of Pine's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.
Sarasota Paradise let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.
Recent resilience: Portland Hearts of Pine stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Portland Hearts of Pine VS Sarasota Paradise
1.25 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Portland Hearts of Pine
(Home) 10 Oct
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Athletic Club Boise
04 Oct
Spokane Velocity
3 : 3 Portland Hearts of Pine
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
19 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
13 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 0 AV Alta FC
Page 1 of 7
10 Oct
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Athletic Club Boise
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
13 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 0 AV Alta FC
06 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
2 : 1 Westchester SC
29 Aug
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Fort Wayne
Page 1 of 4
Sarasota Paradise
(Away) 10 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Richmond Kickers
03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
19 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
6 : 0 Greenville Triumph
12 Sept
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
12 Sept
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
02 Sept
New York Cosmos
1 : 2 Sarasota Paradise
22 Aug
Union Omaha
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
15 Aug
Charlotte Independence
3 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 70:42 | 63 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 53:32 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 52:30 | 52 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 47:40 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49:36 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 43:36 | 50 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46:37 | 45 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 35:44 | 40 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 51:48 | 36 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 42:45 | 36 |
| 12 | Corpus Christi FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33:44 | 36 |
| 13 | AV Alta FC | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 37:44 | 33 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44:55 | 31 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 36:59 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 32:54 | 24 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 32:63 | 23 |
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)
