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Portland Thorns FC W vs Monterrey W

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Club Friendly Women
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AI Match Summary

Portland Thorns FC W play Monterrey W in the Club Friendly Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portland Thorns FC W averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Monterrey W averaged 2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Portland Thorns FC W won 1, Monterrey W won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Portland Thorns FC W and 1.25 for Monterrey W. This points to a Monterrey W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Portland Thorns FC W
21%
Draws
41%
Monterrey W
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Monterrey W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Portland Thorns FC W picked up more points recently compared to Monterrey W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Portland Thorns FC W Clean Sheet 19%
Monterrey W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 78%
Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portland Thorns FC W Monterrey W
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 14 18
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.61 2
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Club Friendly Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Monterrey W
5:1
Aug 18, 2022 International Champions Cup Women
Monterrey W vs Portland Thorns FC W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Thorns FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lyles R.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Spaanstra A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Monterrey W Compare

Top Goalscorer Evangelista Chavez D. L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Thorns FC W 38 / 100
Monterrey W 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portland Thorns FC W Monterrey W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Monterrey W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portland Thorns FC W attacking → ← attacking Monterrey W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Thorns FC W scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Monterrey W let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Portland Thorns FC W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Monterrey W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 60
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38