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Portland Thorns FC W vs Utah Royals W

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AI Match Summary

Portland Thorns FC W play Utah Royals W in the NWSL Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portland Thorns FC W averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Utah Royals W averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Portland Thorns FC W won 1, Utah Royals W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Portland Thorns FC W and 1.44 for Utah Royals W. This points to a Portland Thorns FC W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Portland Thorns FC W
24%
Draws
37%
Utah Royals W
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Portland Thorns FC W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Portland Thorns FC W picked up more points recently compared to Utah Royals W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Portland Thorns FC W Clean Sheet 16%
Utah Royals W Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portland Thorns FC W Utah Royals W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.59 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Utah Royals W
2:2
Aug 30, 2025 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Utah Royals W
1:2
Apr 12, 2025 NWSL Women
Utah Royals W vs Portland Thorns FC W
0:1
Oct 6, 2024 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Utah Royals W
1:2
Jul 28, 2024 NWSL x Liga MX Women Summer Cup
Utah Royals W vs Portland Thorns FC W
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Thorns FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Moultrie O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Utah Royals W Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lacasse C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Thorns FC W 38 / 100
Utah Royals W 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portland Thorns FC W Utah Royals W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portland Thorns FC W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portland Thorns FC W attacking → ← attacking Utah Royals W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Thorns FC W scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Utah Royals W let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Portland Thorns FC W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Utah Royals W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 45
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1San Diego Wave W1491421:1328
2Portland Thorns FC W1483324:1427
3Washington Spirit W1273220:1024
4Utah Royals W1373320:1324
5Kansas City Current W1380521:1724
6North Carolina Courage W1263320:1421
7Gotham FC W1263312:721
8Orlando Pride W1352618:1917
9Angel City W1251618:1416
10Denver Summit W1243517:1615
11Seattle Reign W1242611:1614
12Houston Dash W1342715:2114
13Bay FC W1233611:1912
14Chicago Stars W134098:2612
15Boston Legacy W1324713:2110
16Racing Louisville W1221915:247