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Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC

USA USA

MLS Providence Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Portland Timbers play Los Angeles FC in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portland Timbers averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. Los Angeles FC averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. In past meetings, Portland Timbers won 2, Los Angeles FC won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Portland Timbers and 1.25 for Los Angeles FC. This points to a Los Angeles FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Portland Timbers
28%
Draws
44%
Los Angeles FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Los Angeles FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Portland Timbers picked up more points recently compared to Los Angeles FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Portland Timbers Clean Sheet 19%
Los Angeles FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portland Timbers Los Angeles FC
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 16
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.45 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC
2:1
Jan 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers
2:2
Jul 26, 2025 MLS
Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers
0:1
Apr 20, 2025 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC
3:3
Jan 29, 2025 Club Friendly
Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Timbers Compare

Top Goalscorer Velde K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kelsy K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Los Angeles FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Terry J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Timbers 29 / 100
Los Angeles FC 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portland Timbers Los Angeles FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Los Angeles FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portland Timbers attacking → ← attacking Los Angeles FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Timbers scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Los Angeles FC let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Portland Timbers went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Los Angeles FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 56
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307