Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W

World World

Friendly International Women
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Corelli A.
49' Event
Ferreira M.
81' Event
Bellucci M.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International Women game between Portugal U23 W and Italy U23 W finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy U23 W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Portugal U23 W
20%
Draws
38%
Italy U23 W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Portugal U23 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Portugal U23 W haven't matched Italy U23 W's recent run of results.
  • Portugal U23 W are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Friendly International Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Portugal U23 W Clean Sheet 17%
Italy U23 W Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugal U23 W Italy U23 W
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 4 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 22 11
Goals Scored 0.75 1
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
1:2
Mar 2, 2026 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
1:3
Feb 26, 2024 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
3:3
Nov 10, 2022 Friendly International Women
Italy U23 W vs Portugal U23 W
1:0
Nov 29, 2021 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugal U23 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Italy U23 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Corelli A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bellucci M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugal U23 W 41 / 100
Italy U23 W 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugal U23 W Italy U23 W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U23 W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Portugal U23 W scored in 47% of their last 32 games.

Portugal U23 W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Portugal U23 W VS Italy U23 W
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Portugal U23 W

(Home)
16 Apr
Belgium U23 W
0 : 1
Portugal U23 W
12 Apr
Portugal U23 W
1 : 2
Italy U23 W
05 Mar
Portugal U23 W
1 : 0
Czech Republic U23 W
02 Mar
Portugal U23 W
1 : 3
Italy U23 W
01 Dec
Norway U23 W
1 : 0
Portugal U23 W
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Italy U23 W

(Away)
16 Apr
Germany U23 W
1 : 0
Italy U23 W
12 Apr
Portugal U23 W
1 : 2
Italy U23 W
02 Mar
Portugal U23 W
1 : 3
Italy U23 W
01 Dec
Italy U23 W
1 : 0
Belgium U23 W
27 Nov
Sweden U23 W
2 : 1
Italy U23 W
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