Sport Picks
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 
Match Events
43'
43'
Tomas Carrasco A.
68'
68'
Perez Alvarez A.
(Penalty)
73'
73'
Anduaga A.
AI Match Summary
Aurrera de Vitoria in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aurrera de Vitoria.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
30%
43%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Portugalete lately — more wins on the board than Aurrera de Vitoria.
- Win probability leans Aurrera de Vitoria's way, sitting at 50%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Portugalete Clean Sheet 18%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portugalete | Aurrera de Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 31 |
| Wins | 22 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 5 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:2
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Portugalete
1:2
Feb 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Portugalete
0:0
Oct 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria
2:1
Apr 15, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria
6:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portugalete Compare
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Aurrera de Vitoria Compare
Top Goalscorer Tomas Carrasco A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Anduaga A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portugalete 23 / 100
Aurrera de Vitoria 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portugalete Aurrera de Vitoria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Portugalete found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (34 games).
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Aurrera de Vitoria has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.
Portugalete went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Portugalete VS Aurrera de Vitoria
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Portugalete
(Home) 27 Sept
Bergantinos
3 : 2 Portugalete
19 Sept
Portugalete
2 : 1 Coruxo FC
13 Sept
Portugalete
0 : 0 Compostela
05 Sept
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1 Portugalete
19 Aug
Leioa
1 : 1 Portugalete
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Portugalete
2 : 1 Coruxo FC
13 Sept
Portugalete
0 : 0 Compostela
14 Aug
Portugalete
2 : 0 Barakaldo
05 Aug
Portugalete
2 : 0 Rayo Cantabria
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 4
Aurrera de Vitoria
(Away) 26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3 Aurrera de Vitoria
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1 Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
29 Aug
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 0 Amorebieta
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3 Aurrera de Vitoria
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
18 Apr
Derio
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
01 Apr
Alaves C
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 70:29 | 78 |
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50:34 | 61 |
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 54:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Touring KE | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad C | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48:39 | 55 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37:27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 42:41 | 54 |
| 9 | Alaves C | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57:40 | 53 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56:61 | 45 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35:36 | 44 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32:45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44:53 | 36 |
| 14 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Anorga | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37:59 | 34 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 42:59 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30:60 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26:49 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
