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Portuguesa Santista vs Rio Branco SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Ulrico Mursa, Santos
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Joao Pedro
73' Event
Danilo Pereira
90' Event
Yohan

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 game between Portuguesa Santista and Rio Branco SP finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Portuguesa Santista.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Portuguesa Santista
20%
Draws
28%
Rio Branco SP
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Portuguesa Santista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Rio Branco SP haven't matched Portuguesa Santista's recent run of results.
  • Portuguesa Santista are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Portuguesa Santista Clean Sheet 68%
Rio Branco SP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portuguesa Santista Rio Branco SP
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 5
Draws 7 11
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.43 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs Rio Branco SP
3:0
Jan 24, 2018 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs Rio Branco SP
0:0
Feb 5, 2017 Paulista A3
Rio Branco SP vs Portuguesa Santista
2:2
Feb 8, 2009 Paulista A2
Portuguesa Santista vs Rio Branco SP
1:3
Mar 13, 2008 Paulista A2
Rio Branco SP vs Portuguesa Santista
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portuguesa Santista Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Danilo Pereira
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Rio Branco SP Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portuguesa Santista 95 / 100
Rio Branco SP 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portuguesa Santista Rio Branco SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portuguesa Santista Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Portuguesa Santista scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Portuguesa Santista has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Rio Branco SP conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Portuguesa Santista VS Rio Branco SP
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.86
63% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Portuguesa Santista

(Home)
26 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
2 : 0
Marilia
22 Apr
Marilia
2 : 2
Portuguesa Santista
18 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
1 : 1
Rio Preto EC
11 Apr
Rio Preto EC
0 : 1
Portuguesa Santista
05 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
2 : 0
Paulista
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Rio Branco SP

(Away)
21 Mar
Rio Branco SP
0 : 2
Bandeirante
14 Mar
Uniao Suzano
1 : 2
Rio Branco SP
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2
Itapirense
07 Mar
Rio Branco SP
0 : 2
Marilia
04 Mar
EC Sao Bernardo
4 : 0
Rio Branco SP
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)