Sport Picks

Brazil

Copa Paulista 2025 Estadio Ulrico Mursa

Santo Andre

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portuguesa Santista play Santo Andre in the Copa Paulista 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portuguesa Santista averaged 1.39 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Santo Andre averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Portuguesa Santista won 1, Santo Andre won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 20, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.59 for Portuguesa Santista and 1.01 for Santo Andre. This points to a Portuguesa Santista double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Portuguesa Santista

33%

Draws

24%

Santo Andre

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Portuguesa Santista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

Portuguesa Santista picked up more points recently compared to Santo Andre.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.59 vs 1.01 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 62%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Portuguesa Santista Clean Sheet 23%

Santo Andre Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 56%

Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Portuguesa Santista	Santo Andre
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	17	7
Draws	8	11
Losses	6	12
Goals Scored	1.39	0.77
Goals Conceded	0.77	1.23
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2025 Copa Paulista

Portuguesa Santista vs Santo Andre

Possession: 46% - 51% Cards: 4 - 4

1:1

Jun 14, 2025 Copa Paulista

Santo Andre vs Portuguesa Santista

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Jan 26, 2025 Paulista A2

Portuguesa Santista vs Santo Andre

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Aug 16, 2023 Copa Paulista

Santo Andre vs Portuguesa Santista

Possession: 58% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Jul 16, 2023 Copa Paulista

Portuguesa Santista vs Santo Andre

Possession: 55% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portuguesa Santista Compare

Top Goalscorer Willian Daltro

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Santo Andre Compare

Top Goalscorer Jefferson Alves

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.27

Avg xA / game 0.78

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portuguesa Santista 43 / 100

Santo Andre 24 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Portuguesa Santista Santo Andre

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portuguesa Santista or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +20.8%

3.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portuguesa Santista attacking → ← attacking Santo Andre

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portuguesa Santista scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Santo Andre let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Portuguesa Santista went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Santo Andre lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 32

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.40

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.80

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gremio Prudente	8	4	4	0	12:6	16
2	Monte Azul	8	4	2	2	8:7	14
3	Noroeste	8	3	2	3	7:7	11
4	AEA Aracatuba	8	2	2	4	8:9	8
5	Linense	8	1	2	5	5:11	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uniao Sao Joao	10	5	4	1	15:10	19
2	Comercial	10	5	2	3	13:9	17
3	Internacional de Limeira	10	3	5	2	17:13	14
4	Francana	10	3	5	2	8:8	14
5	Botafogo SP B	10	2	3	5	8:12	9
6	Itapirense	10	2	1	7	11:20	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Piracicaba	10	7	3	0	13:4	24
2	Primavera EC	10	5	4	1	15:9	19
3	Paulista	10	4	1	5	10:10	13
4	Sao Bento	10	2	5	3	12:14	11
5	Guarani B	10	2	2	6	10:16	8
6	Rio Branco SP	10	0	5	5	6:13	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sao Jose EC	10	6	2	2	19:7	20
2	Portuguesa Santista	10	3	6	1	11:8	15
3	Osasco Sporting	10	4	2	4	8:10	14
4	Sao Caetano	10	4	1	5	8:11	13
5	Taubate	10	2	4	4	9:10	10
6	Santo Andre	10	1	5	4	4:13	8