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Potiguar de Mossoró vs EC de Patos

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Potiguar de Mossoró play EC de Patos in the Club Friendly 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Potiguar de Mossoró averaged 0.83 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. EC de Patos averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Potiguar de Mossoró won 1, EC de Patos won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Dec 17, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Potiguar de Mossoró and 0.51 for EC de Patos. This points to a Potiguar de Mossoró double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Potiguar de Mossoró
21%
Draws
37%
EC de Patos
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Potiguar de Mossoró

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Potiguar de Mossoró picked up more points recently compared to EC de Patos.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.51 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25%
Potiguar de Mossoró Clean Sheet 30%
EC de Patos Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Potiguar de Mossoró EC de Patos
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.83 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 17, 2025 Club Friendly
Potiguar de Mossoró vs EC de Patos
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Potiguar de Mossoró Compare

Top Goalscorer Talento A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lerma S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

EC de Patos Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Potiguar de Mossoró 44 / 100
EC de Patos 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Potiguar de Mossoró EC de Patos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Potiguar de Mossoró or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Potiguar de Mossoró attacking → ← attacking EC de Patos

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Potiguar de Mossoró scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

EC de Patos let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Potiguar de Mossoró went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

EC de Patos lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 47
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13