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Provincial Ovalle vs Atletico Colina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Segunda Division Estadio Diaguita, Ovalle
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Arce L.
45'
Naranjo L.
49'
Soto J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division game between Provincial Ovalle and Atletico Colina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Provincial Ovalle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Provincial Ovalle
30%
Draws
33%
Atletico Colina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Provincial Ovalle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico Colina come out ahead of Provincial Ovalle on wins alone.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Provincial Ovalle have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Provincial Ovalle Clean Sheet 17%
Atletico Colina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Provincial Ovalle Atletico Colina
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Atletico Colina
1:0
Jul 4, 2026 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Atletico Colina
2:1
May 2, 2026 Segunda Division
Atletico Colina vs Provincial Ovalle
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Provincial Ovalle Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarifeno R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Atletico Colina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Provincial Ovalle 36 / 100
Atletico Colina 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Provincial Ovalle Atletico Colina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Colina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Colina has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Provincial Ovalle has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Provincial Ovalle scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Provincial Ovalle VS Atletico Colina
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Provincial Ovalle

(Home)
03 Oct
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 5
Deportes Rengo
26 Sept
Lota Schwager
1 : 2
Provincial Ovalle
07 Sept
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 0
Atletico Colina
30 Aug
S. Morning
0 : 0
Provincial Ovalle
22 Aug
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 1
Real San Joaquin
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Atletico Colina

(Away)
04 Oct
General Velasquez
2 : 3
Atletico Colina
27 Sept
Atletico Colina
1 : 0
Real San Joaquin
07 Sept
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 0
Atletico Colina
29 Aug
Atletico Colina
0 : 0
Lota Schwager
17 Aug
S. Morning
2 : 1
Atletico Colina
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