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Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Segunda Division Estadio Diaguita, Ovalle
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Solano B.
5' Event
Meneses M.
(Penalty)
19'
Basaure N.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division game between Provincial Ovalle and Deportes Rengo finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Deportes Rengo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Provincial Ovalle
35%
Draws
38%
Deportes Rengo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Deportes Rengo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Deportes Rengo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Deportes Rengo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Provincial Ovalle Clean Sheet 15%
Deportes Rengo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Provincial Ovalle Deportes Rengo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo
1:5
Jul 18, 2025 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo
2:1
Mar 3, 2025 Segunda Division
Deportes Rengo vs Provincial Ovalle
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo
2:1
May 25, 2024 Segunda Division
Deportes Rengo vs Provincial Ovalle
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Provincial Ovalle Compare

Top Goalscorer Duma C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Deportes Rengo Compare

Top Goalscorer Fierro L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Meneses M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Provincial Ovalle 10 / 100
Deportes Rengo 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Provincial Ovalle Deportes Rengo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deportes Rengo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Deportes Rengo conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Provincial Ovalle remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Provincial Ovalle found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Provincial Ovalle VS Deportes Rengo
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Provincial Ovalle

(Home)
03 Oct
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 5
Deportes Rengo
26 Sept
Lota Schwager
1 : 2
Provincial Ovalle
07 Sept
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 0
Atletico Colina
30 Aug
S. Morning
0 : 0
Provincial Ovalle
22 Aug
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 1
Real San Joaquin
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Deportes Rengo

(Away)
03 Oct
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 5
Deportes Rengo
06 Sept
Deportes Rengo
2 : 2
S. Morning
31 Aug
Real San Joaquin
2 : 5
Deportes Rengo
22 Aug
Deportes Rengo
1 : 1
General Velasquez
16 Aug
Deportes Rengo
1 : 0
Lota Schwager
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