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Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Segunda Division Estadio Diaguita, Ovalle
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Contreras P.
23'
Soto J.
40'
Millalen E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Segunda Division matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Provincial Ovalle
35%
Draws
13%
Real San Joaquin
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Provincial Ovalle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Real San Joaquin average 1.21 goals a game right now, well clear of Provincial Ovalle's 1.03.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Provincial Ovalle taking it.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Provincial Ovalle Clean Sheet 68%
Real San Joaquin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Provincial Ovalle Real San Joaquin
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 7
Draws 6 8
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin
1:1
Jun 21, 2026 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin
1:6
Apr 19, 2026 Segunda Division
Real San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle
3:2
Nov 8, 2025 Segunda Division
Real San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle
1:0
May 30, 2025 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Provincial Ovalle Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarifeno R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Real San Joaquin Compare

Top Goalscorer Contreras P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Provincial Ovalle 59 / 100
Real San Joaquin 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Provincial Ovalle Real San Joaquin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Provincial Ovalle Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real San Joaquin has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Provincial Ovalle went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Real San Joaquin lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Provincial Ovalle VS Real San Joaquin
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Provincial Ovalle

(Home)
03 Oct
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 5
Deportes Rengo
26 Sept
Lota Schwager
1 : 2
Provincial Ovalle
07 Sept
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 0
Atletico Colina
30 Aug
S. Morning
0 : 0
Provincial Ovalle
22 Aug
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 1
Real San Joaquin
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Real San Joaquin

(Away)
03 Oct
Real San Joaquin
0 : 2
Lota Schwager
27 Sept
Atletico Colina
1 : 0
Real San Joaquin
06 Sept
General Velasquez
1 : 1
Real San Joaquin
31 Aug
Real San Joaquin
2 : 5
Deportes Rengo
22 Aug
Provincial Ovalle
1 : 1
Real San Joaquin
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