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PSG vs Arsenal

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Puskas Arena, Budapest
Sat, May 30, 2026
2 - 1
04:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Havertz K.
Assist: Trossard L.
46'
Mosquera C.
54'
Saka B.

AI Match Summary

PSG in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
PSG
15%
Draws
48%
Arsenal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to PSG lately — more wins on the board than Arsenal.
  • Model gives Arsenal a 48% chance of winning this.
  • PSG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor PSG, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
PSG Clean Sheet 17%
Arsenal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSG Arsenal
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 2.14 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Champions League
PSG vs Arsenal
2:1
May 7, 2025 Champions League
PSG vs Arsenal
2:1
Apr 29, 2025 Champions League
Arsenal vs PSG
0:1
Oct 1, 2024 Champions League
Arsenal vs PSG
2:0
Jul 28, 2018 International Champions Cup
Arsenal vs PSG
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSG Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Arsenal Compare

Top Goalscorer Havertz K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSG 23 / 100
Arsenal 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSG Arsenal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arsenal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSG's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: PSG stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Arsenal has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

PSG VS Arsenal
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSG

(Home)
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0
PSG
12 Aug
PSG
2 : 1
Aston Villa
08 Aug
PSG
1 : 1
Manchester United
05 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0
PSG
30 May
PSG
2 : 1
Arsenal
Page 1 of 6

Arsenal

(Away)
16 Aug
Arsenal
3 : 0
Manchester City
12 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 1
Como
09 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 3
Dortmund
05 Aug
Arsenal
1 : 3
Betis
01 Aug
Girona
1 : 4
Arsenal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1